Understanding who will win the Kentucky Derby is one of the most difficult puzzles in all sports, but, at times it seems hazy, there are specific attributes and results that most of the Kentucky Derby winners have.
We still have a long way to go and it’s a bit early to be looking for potential contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but as the year progresses and the two-year-olds start to mature and stretch out a little more , there are some indicators that signals that the horse will be a solid prospect of the Kentucky Derby. What are these signs that you should look for,
Generally I will not even think about analyzing the possibilities of a horse for the next years’ Run for the Roses if he has not run at least six stages. Most two-year-olds have not even made their racing debut, and among those who did, most ran from 4 to 5 stages, and very few raced over 5½ stadiums.
As of the end of July 2011, the six for long Sanford and the six stealthy Hollywood Juvenile Championship are the only two six furlong regattas that have been organized for two-year-olds. Overdriven won the first and Majestic City won the second.
Good weather is not enough, you want to see if the horse is coming home strong. Looks like you’re acting the same way it was down the backstretch, In a six long run, a horse should return home in about 12 seconds in a flat or better position to be considered a contender to successfully lengthen in the mail contests. Uncle Mo in his first six-stage inaugural debut, ran his final between 11 and 3/5 seconds. After seeing that race and seeing its final hour and closing time, I was confident that it would be successful over longer distances – continued to take the 1 st mile Champagne Stakes and the 1 1/16 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and became the two-year old champion of the 2010 Eclipse award.
For races of these distances, you also want to see the good times back home. For example, in a one mile race, you want to see the horse come home in less than 25 seconds. Nearly 26 seconds indicate that perhaps the distance of the race is reaching it, and its resistance is limited. And in 1 / 1/16 mile races, we generally want to see a horse race its last sixteenth of a mile in 6.3 seconds or less. Uncle Mo in Champagne returned home in 24 seconds in a row and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ran his sixteenth final in 6.27 seconds.
We all know that Uncle Mo had his problems at the age of three, but Uncle Mo I saw at the end of 2010 is exactly the kind of horse that can excel in the Kentucky Derby.
In 2007, Street Sense won the 10-yard BC Juvenile, and returned home its sixteenth final in about 6.09 seconds, which is unusually fast for a horse in that early stage of its development. From then on, it was clear to me that he was the one to beat for the Derby, especially since BC Juvenile was raced at Churchill Downs, the same space as the Kentucky Derby. He was the winner of the Kentucky Derby of 2007.
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